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The Law Of Large Numbers

Do small numbers act the same as large numbers? Do numbers act at all? (already I digress) In his book Stumbling on Happiness, Harvard psychology professor Daniel Gilbert explains the law of large numbers to address that question. As a test for the law of large numbers Gilbert proposes an experiment called “split the tab with Dan”. This involves going to a local bar and flipping a coin to see who pays the tab. If you flip the coin four times and Dan wins three of them you might consider yourself unlucky. If you were to flip the coin 4000 times and you lost 75% of those flips you might become suspicious because large numbers do not act the same as small numbers. It is rational to consider loosing three out of four coin tosses due to some imperfection in the coin or the coin tosser (or is it tossee?), but if those same statistics held true for a much larger sample your intuition and rational capacities would suggest that something was amiss and you would be correct.

So, you might ask, what does the law of large numbers have to do with Ultimate Pursuits and asking life’s most important questions? Excellent, thank you. That is precisely the question I asked myself while listening to Gilbert’s book on my iPod while riding a stationary bike and feeling like I was going nowhere. Then it struck me, for all of the important questions in life (at least all that I can think of right now) it is crucial to apply the law of large numbers when drawing conclusions and arriving at answers. For example, it would be possible to conclude, after surveying 10 clinically depressed individuals residing at a psychiatric hospital, that there is no ultimate meaning to one’s existence. A broader survey of the population at large might yield much more optimistic and statistically accurate results.

Wouldn’t the same principles come into play with questions about such vast and important topics as say the existence of God? Granted, that is a question that can seem somewhat like eating an elephant for dinner; it is difficult to know where to start. If that is the case it may not be most important where you begin, but how far you get. For example, many an undergraduate student has been discouraged by a single university science or philosophy professor who has declared that there is no God. As a result, on the basis of one academic, that freshman has concluded that all (or most) thinking university types must have arrived at the same conclusion. Who would argue against encouraging that student to explore further, read more widely, and gather more knowledge before arriving at a conclusion on such a weighty matter?

A friend of mine who is an eminent philosopher suggests that when tackling the important questions we ought to state the question in the form of a proposition and then set out to see where all the lines of evidence converge, apply some logical tests and make a decision accordingly. My guess is that is actually the process you use subconsciously to make decisions on a regular basis. How about deciding where to go and what to do on a vacation? Aren’t you ultimately asking what will make you happy or what is worth pursuing?

The law of large numbers does not mean that you have to have weighed every apple in a barrel to determine the average weight of the apples. It does mean that weighing seven out of ten apples will give you a more accurate average than by only weighing three. Regarding Ultimate Pursuits types of questions I think it is safe to say that you are more likely to arrive at true and satisfying answers if you ask focused questions, gather as much relevant information as you are able, and test those conclusions to see how they work.

“I will call you back as soon as possible”

“At the sound of the tone, please leave your message and I will call you back as soon as possible.”

How many times have you heard that message? Maybe you even use a statement like that for your voice mail message. The next time you get a message like that one, use the opportunity to engage in a philosophical thought exercise. Consider the possible meanings of the phrase “as soon as possible.” Does it mean returning the call at the precise moment the message was received, or simply in the order it was received? Maybe it means: “You might get a call after I come up for air and catch up on all the other urgent issues in my life.” I try to imagine my friends frantically dialing the phone upon hearing my message and getting back to me A.S.A.P.

Of course, the phrase “as soon as possible” is typically used in an existentially relative sort of way. Calls are usually returned based on where the caller ranks on an unspoken priority list. Telemarketers don’t stand a chance. Who ever returns their calls? The boss calling to see if you can work next weekend: Message? What message? Your wife or husband? The local radio station calling to say they picked your name for the $1,000 cash giveaway and you have 20 minutes to call back to claim your prize?

You can learn a lot about a person by what they say on their voice mail message. The no nonsense people say, “You know what to do when you hear the beep.” The co-dependent person says, “Please leave a message and I will do whatever you ask if it will make you like me.” The pessimist says, “You can leave a message if you want, but don’t hold your breath for a call back; it probably isn’t going to happen.”

The point is that calls get returned based upon how interested one is in the message and how strong the relationship is with the caller. So, in the bigger scheme of things, what you do with every voice mail message is a microcosmic picture of how you view life. OK, maybe that is going a bit too far, but it does say something about what you think is important. How quickly would you return any of the following voice mail messages: a call from the CEO who wants to discuss the open VP position? The governor’s assistant with an invitation to a reception for a visiting dignitary? Jesus Christ and something about the meaning of life?

The next time you get a voice mail prompt that says, “… and I will call you back as soon as possible…,” leave a message telling the person to relax, to get back to you whenever is convenient, and to think about the philosophical implications of the message.

Living to die or dying to live?

In the book Tuesdays with Morrie, Morrie Schwartz, who is dying of Lou Gehrig’s disease, tells his former student, “Everyone knows they’re going to die, but nobody believes it.” Because Morrie knows that he was going to die soon, he decides to give great thought to how he will use the rest of the time he has to live. So often, though, we don’t know how to talk about the subject. It is like the life insurance salesman who said to the prospective client, “If you should die …” There are no if’s and’s or but’s about it--everyone is going to die. The question is: Are you living to die or dying to live?

What I mean is that there are at least two ways to look at our life: from a physical perspective and from a spiritual perspective. One could say, “I am alive and growing, working out, eating right, and I am more alive than ever before,” even though that person is aware that one day he or she will die. Or, one could realize that in many ways each day of life is actually one step closer to death. I am not trying to be overly morbid, but physically that’s reality.

There may be another way to look at life, though, and that is from the spiritual perspective. Most religions in the world hold to the belief that there is some type of existence after physical death. For many of those religions, how we live our life here on earth plays a role in what happens after death. For those religions that believe in some type of “heaven” and “hell,” not everyone has the same destiny. Even the system of reincarnation is based upon progress and regress in coming lives. If it is true that one’s life continues after physical death, then it is also true that with every passing day each of us is progressing not only toward death, but also toward eternity.

Now, life and death take on a new perspective. Spiritual life is being present with God in eternity. Spiritual death is being separated from God in eternity. Of course, there are many different religions and many different concepts of the afterlife, but one thing that can be understood for certain is that they cannot all be correct. Something (or nothing, as some believe) is going to happen, and it will be the same “system” for all of us. It cannot be that those who believe in reincarnation will go that way while those who believe in heaven or hell will be judged that way and that the atheist will simply cease to exist.

Physically everyone is in the process of dying; spiritually it is another story. Some people may be living to die, meaning that they are currently alive physically, but are heading toward spiritual death. Others may be dying to live, meaning that while they are in the process of dying physically, they are headed toward spiritual life. The question everyone would like to know the answer to is: How can I be certain what happens after death?
Morrie Schwartz knew that he was going to die, so he used his time and life more fully and purposefully as a result. Settling the issue of spiritual life and death also has a profound effect on one’s physical life. Just imagine what it would be like if you knew for sure what would happen right after you die.

It is common today to believe that nobody can know for sure what will happen after death, but often times that is simply an excuse for not dealing with the question, which is an uncomfortable one. Is it possible that there is a way to answer the question and to be sure? Jesus Christ made a very interesting statement. He said, “I am the resurrection and the life. He who believes in me will live, even though he dies; and whoever lives and believes in me will never die.” You will have to decide for yourself, but it sounds like he is on to something.

Compound Interest

Most people are familiar with the concept of compound interest these days. When taking out a mortgage to buy a home it works against you, but when investing in a certificate of deposit it works for you. Compound interest is the amount of interest paid on the total value of the principal and any accumulated interest. It is the slow and steady road to building wealth over the get rich quick strategies that are so often promoted on infomercials. It is the same lesson from the story about the tortoise and the hare.

An example of how compound interest works for you can be seen in this scenario. If a person invested $20 a week at 5% interest annually that investment would be worth $1,065 after one year; $13,486 after 10 years; $35,723 after 20 years; and $132,828 after forty years. A small amount invested at regular intervals leads to a significant gain over time. Needless to say it is more fun to look at how investments grow using compound interest than it is to calculate the actual amount you pay for a home over the life of a typical 30 year mortgage.

As is often the case, principals in one area of life work in the same manner in another area of life. In this case C.S. Lewis, renowned philosopher and author, describes the spiritual truths of compounding interest.

Lewis writes, “Good and evil both increase at compound interest. That is why the little decisions you and I make every day are of such infinite importance. The smallest good act today is the capture of a strategic point from which, a few months later, you may be able to go on to victories you never dreamed of. An apparently trivial indulgence in lust or anger today is the loss of a ridge or railway line or bridgehead from which the enemy may launch an attack otherwise impossible.”

Are the little decisions you make each day really of infinite importance? Are there areas of life that you have invested in over time that are beginning to pay off? Can you see areas of neglect that over time have begun to feel more like the weight of an unpaid loan that has reached its maturity date?

Every once in a while someone gets lucky and wins the lottery or hits the jackpot. On the other hand every day everyone makes decisions that will determine the outcome and destination of their life by the same principle of compound interest. Those that work the land know this as the principles of sowing and reaping. Those that work in the financial world know it as the value of compound interest. So, the next time you look at your 401k retirement account balance or are considering giving in to that familiar temptation calculate the compounding effect it will have on your life.

How do you know?

Augustine said, “I doubt therefore I am.” Descartes said, “I think therefore I am.” All I can say is, “I doubt that I think, therefore what am I?” At least Augustine and Descartes knew one thing for sure: they existed. For the rest of us the question remains: how do you know? Basically, there are two ways in which we come to know things.

The first way that we can know anything is from our personal observations and experiences. Every day of our lives we see and experience a variety of people, places, and events. We learn by seeing and doing. Those personal experiences are stored in our memories and we grow in knowledge as we experience the world around us.

The second way we can know something is if someone tells us about something that is outside of our experience. For example, if a friend returns from a vacation to Italy we can learn about that place from their experience. Or, if we want to learn about how Benjamin Franklin discovered electricity, we can read his autobiography and learn from someone who lived 200 years ago.

Have you ever heard someone say, or said yourself, “I will have to see it to believe it”? That may be a good test for some incredible claims, but it is a rotten way to live life every day. Like an infant who doesn’t know better, and thus cries when a parent moves outside of his or her line of sight are those who act like nothing exists outside of what they can see. Of the two ways that we come to know things, we learn much more by far from others about things that are outside of our own experiences. Everything that happened before we were born, everything that takes place out of our sight, and most of what will happen in the future we will not experience first hand. This fact is humbling and challenging: humbling because it means that none of us knows as much as we might hope, and challenging because it means we must be careful whom we listen to and carefully investigate claims to truth. We must rely on others as we come to know things, but we must make sure that we have good reasons to believe their accounts.

There is a principle that is critical to understand in this process. The more important the fact or belief, the more credible the person sharing the knowledge must be. It is fine to ask any stranger for directions to a nearby restaurant, but it is critical that someone who claims to be able to tell us about the meaning of life, God, and eternity be a very credible and tested authority. Since we all have to rely on others, it is worth our effort to make sure that those people are worth believing. Anyone can get a dog to follow him by feeding and petting it. I like to think that humanity is more reasonable than that. We ought to test claims that people make to determine if they are true.

Not only are there two ways of knowing, but there are also two types of knowledge. Augustine called the knowledge of temporal and changeless things “scientia.” He called the knowledge of changeless guidelines for living in the changing world “sapientia” or wisdom. Knowledge of changing and temporal things is important, but wisdom is the higher and ultimate goal. So, if wisdom is your goal, then think clearly about the source of your knowledge.

A person can go through life limited by only trusting his experiences or he can learn to find credible sources of knowledge that will lead to gaining wisdom. When it comes to questions about spiritual truth, we need to ask: who exhibited the greatest wisdom, teaching, understanding, insights, and life? That person deserves a hearing. These are not new thoughts: 1,600 years ago, Augustine wrestled with these same issues and found that God seems to be very concerned about how we know and what we know. Remember, Augustine went from, “Dubito ergo sum” (I doubt therefore I am) to, “… you [God] made us for yourself and our hearts find no peace until they rest in you.”

Going To Jail

I went to jail today. Entering the booking area where you make your phone calls and await a decision about whether bond can be set is when reality begins to sink in if it didn’t while being searched in the garage holding area. Walking through sets of doors where the first needs to be closed before the second can be opened alerts your heightened senses that you are not in control. Once inside it hits you that unless you are wearing a blue uniform you can’t leave at your own choosing. Every movement is constantly monitored. Fear, panic, despair and shame circulate through your mind like the blood being pumped through an increasingly stressed heart. How can this be happening to me? What is going to happen now? When will I be able to get out of here?

Fortunately for me I was just visiting. In my role as chaplain for the Sheriff’s Office I was given a very complete tour through the entire facility. When we approached a locked set of doors, after a few moments, there was the comforting click of a lock being released. Someone high up in the command center acknowledged our presence and granted permission to continue in or out.

“Most of the people that come in here are pretty good people who are having a really bad day” was the observation of a seasoned deputy who had checked enough people in over nearly two decades to know. I would have thought that someone who has booked all kinds of people into the jail might have a more cynical view of humanity. Instead the thin line that separates those who reside there from those who can leave is often just a few bad choices. Someone who drank too much and thought they would be fine getting behind the wheel to go home. Someone else let their anger take control of them and took it out on their spouse. Another crossed over in desperation to feed a habit that was driving their life.

Driving away and looking at the jail from the outside I was struck by a couple of thoughts. First, it would be pretty easy to end up in jail; all of us are just one poor decision away. Second, how do the deputies that work in that environment deal with all of the questions that must arise in their own hearts and minds as a result of the situations they deal with every day? Most of us are confronted by the harsh realities of life occasionally; they deal with them every day.

On another level I wondered, does God see us in a similar light? Does he see men and women who are generally pretty good, but because of some bad choices find themselves imprisoned by their consequences? Is he interested in bringing about real change, rehabilitation, and setting people free? Does he treat us with dignity and respect no matter what we have done? Is God more concerned with setting people free or making sure they pay a penalty? My time in jail today showed me that it is run by compassionate people who have not lost sight of the fact that inmates are human beings and not just criminals. Maybe God is like that also. If Jesus Christ can be trusted it appears that God is more concerned with “setting the captives free”.